The tensions between Russia and the Ukraine continue to rise, and questions over whether Russia will mobilise troops into the Ukraine is raising concerns for the safety of the region and its airspace.
For a full background to the situation, you can read this post.
Here is a timeline of the current situation and risk warnings, with latest updates on any changes as they occur.
Timeline – Airspace Risk
Jan 26 2022 – **Latest Update**
- Belarus and Russia advise they will holding joint exercise through to February 20. These will take place near the southern border with the Ukraine. The drills will involve tests of the air defense systems which use advanced anti-aircraft weaponry, able to reach all levels of civilian utilised airspace.
- Russia warned of “the most unpredictable and grave consequences for European security” in relation to plans for the Ukraine to join NATO which is further destabilising the situation.
- NATO has increased air forces in Eastern Europe in case intervention is required.
- Warnings and prohibitions remain in place for the airspace along the border between Russia and Ukraine.
- The FAA published updated information on overflight risks near the border, particularly in the URRV/Rostov FIR near the UKDV/Dnipro FIR boundary. This is the region where MH17 wash shot down in 2017.
- Russia increased military activity along their border with the Ukraine, and based significant numbers of troops around URRP/Platov International Airport in Roston-On-Don Oblast.
- The Ukraine hold drills of their airborne units in the Kyiv region, in response to increased Russian activity.
- The FAA extended their ban on US operators overflying the eastern part of the UKDV/Dnipro FIR. This is in force until October 2023.
- Russia established several large danger areas throughout the UKFZ/Simferopol FIR airspace over the Crimea, increasing tensions between Russia and the Ukraine. ICAO does not recognise Russia’s jurisdiction over this airspace.
- Increasing reports of GPS jamming along the border and in east Ukraine suggestion heightened surveillance. Increasing military presence was reported.
- The FAA and Canada published updated airspace warnings. Canada recommended operators avoid the UKFV/Simferopol and the UKDV/Dnipro FIR.
Within the Ukraine
- Cyberattacks caused disruption to government and public services, and are likely to continue.
- Several countries including the UK and Canada have now advised their nationals to leave, and advise against all but essential travel.
- Provinces located in the eastern and northern regions of Ukraine, including capital Kyiv and Odessa are on elevated travel alert, with significant concerns about safety and security on the ground.
- Protests in major cities, particularly Kyiv, occurred as civil unrest increases. The security situation in major cities is worsening.
More on the topic:
- More: Airspace Risk Update – Important Changes You May Have Missed
- More: Get ready for more North Korean missiles
- More: Airspace Risk: Conflict Zones and Security in 2023
- More: Ukraine-Russia Spillover Risks: Nov 2022
- More: North Korea Missile Threat