Is Libya safe to overfly yet?

We asked this question back in March 2022, and decided that no, it probably wasn’t.

Now we are asking it again, a year later, because the US FAA have decided that yes, maybe, it might be. In certain spots anyway.

Where are we talking about?

Libya’s airspace is the HLLL/Tripoli FIR:

What’s the deal?

The US FAA says this:

The FAA assesses the risk to U.S. civil aviation operations in the portions of 
the Tripoli FIR (HLLL) outside the territory and airspace of Libya at altitudes 
below FL300 has diminished and the situation has stabilized sufficiently to 
permit U.S. civil aviation operations to resume in that airspace. 
Since the October 2020 ceasefire agreement, foreign actors have significantly 
reduced weapons shipments and military activities off the coast of Libya. 
Previously, these activities included targeting suspected weapons shipments 
destined for the opposing side or their foreign sponsors. As a result, the risk 
of either side or their foreign sponsors misidentifying civil aircraft operations 
in the overwater portion of the Tripoli FIR as carrying weapons shipments destined 
for the other side or their foreign sponsors and mistakenly targeting them has 
diminished. The reduction of widespread conflict has also reduced the risk to U.S. 
civil aviation operations in the small portion of the Tripoli FIR (HLLL) that 
extends into Chad's territorial airspace. Therefore, due to the diminished risks 
to the safety of U.S. civil aviation operations and stabilized situation in those 
portions of the Tripoli FIR (HLLL) outside the territory and airspace of Libya, 
the FAA amends SFAR No. 112, 14 CFR 91.1603, to remove the prohibition on U.S. 
civil aviation operations in those areas.

Which is basically a whole lot of text to really say:

We reckon the bit over the water is ok now (and the bit extending into Chad).

So the map of where the US FAA says you can and can’t fly now looks like this:

Red = can’t fly. Yellow = good to go.

Here is our summary of it

Feel free to fly over the water, but you won’t, because there’s no reason to.

What do we mean by that?

Well, most of the airways in this bit of water are North-South, connecting airports on the Libyan coastline to the Malta FIR. You can’t use them, because you can’t fly to Libya.

There are some East-West airways, and some of these might be useful for flights from the likes of Tunisia to Egypt, for example. But none of these airways stay overwater the whole way – they all hit the Libyan landmass at some point. So you can’t use these either.

Water north of Libya = zero useful airways.

So in practical terms, we suspect that the FAA lifting the prohibition of flights over the water north of Libya doesn’t mean very much, because no-one’s going to fly there.

Oh, and the thing about Chad

Yes! There is a little patch of nothing in northern Chad (the tiny bit which is technically underneath Libya’s HLLL/Tripoli FIR) where you’re now allowed to fly too. Yay!

Enjoy a whole lot of nothing over northern Chad.

So, what does this really mean for ops?

Well, first up, the rest of Libya is very decidedly still not OK.

There have been a whole bunch of reports of issues in Libya, some fairly recently. From GPS jamming, to reported drone shoot-downs, to known anti aircraft weapons that can reach 49,000’…

Aside from the slight improvement the US has mentioned, there is really no change on what we wrote last year.

ATC in neighbouring airspace have reported the following in March 2023:

The ATM/CNS situation in the HLLL FIR is very basic and from our experience there are issues with communications and surveillance (or the lack of it).
There is a lot of military activity which is not always known to Tripoli and Benghazi ACCs also due to these communication and coverage issues.
There are still issues regarding coordination between the Tripoli and Benghazi ACCs. One seems to have certain rules which the other ignores. It is very frequent for example that either one or both reject overflights resulting in significant re-routings which we have to sort out (normally military flights) but not excluding civilian flights – sometimes even Libyan flights.
We see a lot of remotely piloted aircraft operating in the airspace which as far as we know are not operating in segregated airspace nor are they being controlled by the ATC units.
Only recently Libyan controllers went on a flash strike informing us that they cannot continue to handle the traffic with no radar equipment.
The AIS services are not functioning properly and the status of the airports is unknown.

So Libya remains a Do Not Fly area.

Libya remains volatile. Safety and security on the ground is not good, and there is a significant risk to aircraft overflying due to the conflict and weapons available to militia groups.

Tell me more about the SFAR

SFAR 112 has been extended to March 20, 2025 but they will keep monitoring the situation and updating it as and when the security situation changes.

The SFAR provides a good summary of the situation (the ongoing, messy, risky situation). You can read it via the link at safeairspace.net.

Is Libya safe to overfly yet?