{"id":8778,"date":"2020-01-08T03:16:47","date_gmt":"2020-01-08T08:16:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ops.group\/blog\/?p=8778"},"modified":"2020-04-15T02:30:29","modified_gmt":"2020-04-15T06:30:29","slug":"risk-assessing-iran-ops-the-uia-737-may-have-been-shot-down","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ops.group\/blog\/risk-assessing-iran-ops-the-uia-737-may-have-been-shot-down\/","title":{"rendered":"Risk assessing Iran ops – the UIA 737 may have been shot down"},"content":{"rendered":"

Special Update Thursday 09JAN<\/span>: Members, please see either your email or\u00a0this post<\/a>\u00a0in the Members forum, for a special briefing and update.<\/p>\n

08JAN: Iran\/Iraq Information page<\/a>\u00a0<\/strong>activated with latest information.
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\nThe cause of the crash of Ukraine International Airlines (UIA) AUI\/PS752<\/a> on departure from Tehran is not yet determined, and given political circumstances, may not be clarified beyond reasonable doubt anytime soon.<\/p>\n

Purely from the perspective of making a risk assessment for operations to Tehran, and Iran in general, however, we would recommend the starting assumption to be that this was a shootdown event<\/strong>, similar to MH17 – until there is clear evidence to the contrary.<\/p>\n

Images seen by OPSGROUP, shown below, show obvious projectile holes in the fuselage and a wing section. Whether that projectile was an engine part, or a missile fragment is still conjecture, but in making a decision as to whether to operate to Iran, erring on the side of caution would dictate that you do not, until there is clear information as to the cause.<\/p>\n

Obviously, there is also the wider regional risk as indicated through the US FAA Notams<\/a> issued late Tuesday night. US operators are covered by these clear and specific Notams – do not operate to Iran, or Iraq, or operate in the Persian\/Oman Gulf area.<\/p>\n

Other operators are free to make their own judgement, but should note that a majority of non-US international carriers have elected to avoid both countries for the time being.<\/p>\n

See also:<\/p>\n