{"id":29455,"date":"2026-01-20T10:21:28","date_gmt":"2026-01-20T15:21:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ops.group\/blog\/?p=29455"},"modified":"2026-01-20T10:27:40","modified_gmt":"2026-01-20T15:27:40","slug":"crisis-in-iran-elevated-airspace-risk","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ops.group\/blog\/crisis-in-iran-elevated-airspace-risk\/","title":{"rendered":"Crisis in Iran: Elevated Airspace Risk"},"content":{"rendered":"<h6><strong>Key Points:<\/strong><\/h6>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Iran remains highly unstable, with elevated risk to civil aviation.<\/strong><\/li>\n<li><strong>Severe internet disruption has been in place since Jan 8, with broader communications affected.<\/strong><\/li>\n<li><strong>The OIIX\/Tehran FIR was closed at short notice for several hours on Jan 14, with no public explanation.<\/strong><\/li>\n<li><strong>EASA recommends avoiding Iranian airspace at all levels due to misidentification risk.<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h4>Situation in Iran<\/h4>\n<p>Beginning in late December, <strong>large-scale political protests spread across major cities<\/strong> due to a worsening economic crisis.<\/p>\n<p>These escalated in recent weeks, with many demanding a change of political leadership.<strong> The Government has responded with a violent crack-down. <\/strong>Large numbers of casualties have been reported amid arbitrary arrests and severe internet disruption since Jan 8, with wider communications also affected.<\/p>\n<p>Several countries (<a href=\"https:\/\/ir.usembassy.gov\/iran-security-alert-americans-should-leave-iran-now-january-13-2026\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">including the US<\/a>) have <strong>urged their citizens to leave the country immediately.<\/strong><\/p>\n<h4>Potential for US Military Intervention<\/h4>\n<p>In response to\u00a0humanitarian concerns, <strong>the US Government has implied military intervention remains a possibility<\/strong> should violence against protesters continues.<\/p>\n<p>If this were to occur, <strong>Iran has repeatedly warned it will\u00a0retaliate\u00a0by targeting US military bases<\/strong> and other assets throughout the region.<\/p>\n<p>Some effects of this threat have already been felt, including the <strong>partial removal of personnel as a precautionary measure at Al-Udeid Air Base in Qatar<\/strong> &#8211; the largest US military base in the Middle East. Although the threat level has reportedly been downgraded in the past few days.<\/p>\n<h4>Airspace Risk<\/h4>\n<p>The current crisis has <strong>further increased risk to aircraft<\/strong> operating in or near Iranian airspace (the OIIX\/Tehran FIR).<\/p>\n<p>On Jan 14, the following Notam was issued unexpectedly <strong>closing the OIIX\/Tehran FIR for several hours overnight<\/strong>, with no public explanation from Iranian authorities:<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-29501 alignnone\" src=\"https:\/\/ops.group\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/NOTAM.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"683\" height=\"158\" srcset=\"https:\/\/ops.group\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/NOTAM.png 683w, https:\/\/ops.group\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/NOTAM-300x69.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 683px) 100vw, 683px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Previous events have shown that these types of closures can occur when security or military activity is taking place including a risk of missile launches or air defence operations.<\/p>\n<p>Then on Jan 16, EASA upgraded its warning for Iranian airspace by publishing a new <a href=\"https:\/\/www.easa.europa.eu\/en\/domains\/air-operations\/czibs\/2026-02\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Conflict Zone Information Bulletin<\/a> (CZIB) for Iran and neighbouring airspace. It suggests that recent events (including the possibility of foreign intervention) have likely placed air defence systems at a heightened sense of alert. <strong>Civil aircraft are at increased risk of misidentification.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s worth noting that <strong>most operators already avoid Iranian airspace.<\/strong> Several states (including the US, UK, France, Canada and Germany) either actively prohibit or at least strongly advise against entering. At <a href=\"https:\/\/safeairspace.net\/iran\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">safeairspace.net<\/a>, we maintain a <strong>\u2018Level 1 \u2013 Do Not Fly\u2019<\/strong> warning.<\/p>\n<p>However, when referencing <em>adjacent<\/em> airspace, things become a little more ambiguous. EASA&#8217;s CZIB advises <strong>caution when overflying neighbouring countries<\/strong> where US military assets are present. This notably includes Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Iraq, Syria and Turkey.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-large wp-image-29531\" src=\"https:\/\/ops.group\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/Mideast-Airspace-Jan-2026-1024x579.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"579\" srcset=\"https:\/\/ops.group\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/Mideast-Airspace-Jan-2026-1024x579.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/ops.group\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/Mideast-Airspace-Jan-2026-300x170.jpg 300w, https:\/\/ops.group\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/Mideast-Airspace-Jan-2026-768x434.jpg 768w, https:\/\/ops.group\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/Mideast-Airspace-Jan-2026-1536x868.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/ops.group\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/Mideast-Airspace-Jan-2026-2048x1157.jpg 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Special care should be used on the major air corridor that skirts the western boundary of Iran via Iraqi airspace (airways UL602, UM860 and UM688) where <strong>GPS interference<\/strong> (including the more insidious spoofing) is prevalent.<\/p>\n<p>We know of at least <a href=\"https:\/\/ops.group\/blog\/faa-warning-navigation-failures\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">one incident<\/a> in the past where an aircraft almost<strong> inadvertently strayed into Iranian airspace<\/strong> without a clearance while suffering from navigation error.<\/p>\n<p>From a broader perspective, EASA are also alluding to the possibility of <strong>regional escalation should the situation deteriorate<\/strong> &#8211; especially in the event of retaliatory strikes against military targets.<\/p>\n<h4>Continue to monitor the situation<\/h4>\n<p>Iran sits alongside the main Europe-Middle East transit corridor via Iraq\/Kuwait\/Bahrain, and the June 2025 Israel-Iran missile exchange showed how quickly events inside Iran can trigger <strong>widespread airspace closures and warnings across the region. <\/strong><\/p>\n<p>If further military activity involving Iran escalates, expect little warning &#8211; for Europe-Middle East flights, <strong>the longer routing via Egypt\/Saudi has been the more stable option<\/strong> and keeps you further clear of Iranian airspace.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-large wp-image-29530\" src=\"https:\/\/ops.group\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/Mideast-Routings-Jan-2026-1024x579.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"579\" srcset=\"https:\/\/ops.group\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/Mideast-Routings-Jan-2026-1024x579.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/ops.group\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/Mideast-Routings-Jan-2026-300x170.jpg 300w, https:\/\/ops.group\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/Mideast-Routings-Jan-2026-768x434.jpg 768w, https:\/\/ops.group\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/Mideast-Routings-Jan-2026-1536x868.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/ops.group\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/Mideast-Routings-Jan-2026-2048x1157.jpg 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>We\u2019ll continue to issue any updates via Opsgroup and <a href=\"https:\/\/safeairspace.net\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Safeairspace.net<\/a>. You can also reach us at <a href=\"mailto:blog@ops.group\">blog@ops.group<\/a> if you have any info to share.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/safeairspace.net\/iran\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-29532 size-large\" src=\"https:\/\/ops.group\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/safeairspace-16jan2026-1024x530.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"530\" srcset=\"https:\/\/ops.group\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/safeairspace-16jan2026-1024x530.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/ops.group\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/safeairspace-16jan2026-300x155.jpg 300w, https:\/\/ops.group\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/safeairspace-16jan2026-768x398.jpg 768w, https:\/\/ops.group\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/safeairspace-16jan2026.jpg 1244w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Key Points: Iran remains highly unstable, with elevated risk to civil aviation. Severe internet disruption&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":49,"featured_media":29534,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[1119,34,783],"class_list":{"0":"post-29455","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-briefings","8":"tag-airspace-risk","9":"tag-iran","10":"tag-safe-airspace"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ops.group\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29455","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ops.group\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ops.group\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ops.group\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/49"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ops.group\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=29455"}],"version-history":[{"count":26,"href":"https:\/\/ops.group\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29455\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":29526,"href":"https:\/\/ops.group\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29455\/revisions\/29526"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ops.group\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/29534"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ops.group\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=29455"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ops.group\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=29455"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ops.group\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=29455"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}