{"id":25869,"date":"2024-07-30T04:39:04","date_gmt":"2024-07-30T08:39:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ops.group\/blog\/?p=25869"},"modified":"2024-07-30T11:45:29","modified_gmt":"2024-07-30T15:45:29","slug":"lebanon-risk-update","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ops.group\/blog\/lebanon-risk-update\/","title":{"rendered":"Lebanon Risk Update"},"content":{"rendered":"<ul>\n<li><strong>Overflights risks of the OLBB\/Beirut FIR are increasing. <\/strong><strong>The outbreak of a larger scale conflict between Israel and Hezbollah is increasingly likely.\u00a0<\/strong><\/li>\n<li><strong>Several airlines (Air France, Eurowings, Lufthansa, Swiss, Transavia and Middle East Airlines &#8211; the Lebanese flag carrier) have temporarily suspended flights to OLBA\/Beirut airport.<\/strong><\/li>\n<li><strong>Canada has issued a new Notam (July 30) advising operators to avoid Lebanese airspace at all levels.\u00a0<\/strong><\/li>\n<li><strong>Surface-to-air weaponry may be present capable of reaching aircraft at all altitudes.\u00a0<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h4>Risk to aircraft operating over Lebanon is increasing<\/h4>\n<p>There was a <strong>significant escalation<\/strong> in hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon over the weekend.<\/p>\n<p>On July 27 a suspected Hezbollah <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/middle-east\/nine-people-killed-rocket-hits-football-pitch-israeli-occupied-golan-israel-2024-07-27\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">rocket attack<\/a> caused Israeli casualties in the Golan Heights region \u2013 although Hezbollah has been uncharacteristically quick to deny their involvement.<\/p>\n<p>This was quickly followed by <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/world\/article\/2024\/jul\/29\/israeli-drones-hit-southern-lebanon-tensions-mount-golan-heights-attack\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Israeli airstrikes<\/a> well inside Lebanese territory.<\/p>\n<p>The US Embassy has since <a href=\"https:\/\/lb.usembassy.gov\/security-alert-u-s-embassy-beirut-july-28-2024\/\"><span class=\"s1\">issued an alert <\/span><\/a>to citizens that scheduled flights to\/from Beirut may change or be cancelled at short notice. They\u2019re also <a href=\"https:\/\/lb.usembassy.gov\/message-from-u-s-department-of-states-assistant-secretary-for-consular-affairs\/\"><span class=\"s1\">recommending<\/span><\/a> anyone there develop a <b>\u2018crisis plan\u2019<\/b> to leave if the current situation escalates.<\/p>\n<p>There is widespread concern that the two sides could imminently be drawn into a <strong>full-scale conflict.<\/strong> In which case the risk picture for aircraft in both the LLLL\/Tel Aviv and OLBB\/Beirut FIR could change dramatically.<\/p>\n<p>Here is a brief summary of the situation.<\/p>\n<h4>Why are Israel and Hezbollah fighting?<\/h4>\n<p>The two have fought in several wars \u2013 the latest was in 2006. The background to these hostilities is beyond the scope and intent of this article &#8211; but you can read more about that <a href=\"https:\/\/www.usnews.com\/news\/best-countries\/articles\/tensions-between-israel-and-hezbollah-explained\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">here<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>The most recent cross-border fighting began almost immediately after the Hamas assault in Southern Israel which sparked the current war in Gaza.<\/p>\n<p>The situation in Gaza has mobilised Iranian-backed militants across the region to act, and Hezbollah is widely considered one of the <strong>most powerfully equipped.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Hezbollah has said they will not stop hostilities against Israel until there is a cease-fire in Gaza.<\/p>\n<h4>So Far&#8230;<\/h4>\n<p>Since the start of the war in Gaza, sporadic fighting across the Israeli\/Lebanese border has been almost a daily occurrence. It is not immediately obvious in existing airspace warnings just how <strong>frequent<\/strong> these skirmishes have become.<\/p>\n<p>Here is a statistic that may cause alarm to traffic regularly overflying \u2013 as of the end of June, the media reported 7,400 cross-border attacks between Israel and Hezbollah in the preceding nine months.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-25884 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/ops.group\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/map.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"793\" height=\"737\" srcset=\"https:\/\/ops.group\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/map.png 793w, https:\/\/ops.group\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/map-300x279.png 300w, https:\/\/ops.group\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/map-768x714.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 793px) 100vw, 793px\" \/>This has included artillery firing, rocket attacks, missiles, drones, and of most concern &#8211; air defense activations on both sides. Various instances of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/news\/2023\/10\/11\/israel-army-says-aerial-infiltration-on-lebanon-border-was-a-false-alarm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">false identification<\/a> have been reported.<\/p>\n<p>This fighting has mostly been constrained. If a full-scale conflict develops as feared, things may get a lot worse.<\/p>\n<h4>In the skies<\/h4>\n<p>Just last month, Hezbollah <a href=\"https:\/\/today.lorientlejour.com\/article\/1416827\/hezbollahs-newly-revealed-anti-aircraft-missiles-and-what-it-means-for-the-war.html#:~:text=Military%20experts%20say%20that%20Hezbollah%27s,of%20deterrence%2C%20rather%20than%20destruction.&amp;text=On%20June%206%2C%20Hezbollah%20announced,it%20forced%20them%20to%20retreat.\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">reported<\/a> targeting Israeli fighter jets using<strong> surface-to-air missiles<\/strong> for the first time. Existing airspace warnings for the OLBB\/Beirut FIR <strong>do not any mention level restrictions.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>There has been some credible concern recently that Hezbollah might possess more sophisticated surface-to-air weaponry. One <a href=\"https:\/\/israel-alma.org\/2024\/05\/20\/hezbollah-equipping-itself-with-iranian-sayyad-2-surface-to-air-missiles\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">report speculates<\/a> this includes mobile Iranian made radar-guided SAMs which are capable of targeting aircraft as high as <strong>90,000 feet<\/strong> with range of up to 100kms (depending on the variant).<\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_25888\" style=\"width: 973px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-25888\" class=\"wp-image-25888 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/ops.group\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/Overlay.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"963\" height=\"540\" srcset=\"https:\/\/ops.group\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/Overlay.png 963w, https:\/\/ops.group\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/Overlay-300x168.png 300w, https:\/\/ops.group\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/Overlay-768x431.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 963px) 100vw, 963px\" \/><p id=\"caption-attachment-25888\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Advanced surface-to-air missile range (100kms), as seen from a point along the Lebanese border.<\/p><\/div>\n<p>The Wall Street Journal have also <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/world\/russias-wagner-group-may-provide-air-defense-weapon-to-hezbollah-u-s-intel-says-37dc8f45\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">suggested<\/a> another system may be present with similar capabilities supplied by Wagner Group mercenaries.<\/p>\n<p>It is possible we have just not seen these types of weapons used by Hezbollah in this conflict to date.<\/p>\n<p>While the LLLL\/Tel Aviv FIR has arguably been a masterclass in how to maintain safe and informed overflights near a conflict zone in recent month, should a larger conflict arise it is <strong>unlikely the safety of civil aircraft in the OLBB\/Beirut FIR will be protected to the same extent.<\/strong><\/p>\n<h4>Existing Airspace Warnings<\/h4>\n<p>We maintain a <a href=\"https:\/\/safeairspace.net\/lebanon\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Safe Airspace Risk Level of Two (Danger Exists)<\/a> for the OLBB\/Beirut FIR.<\/p>\n<p>Here is a summary of existing state-issued airspace warnings for Lebanon:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Canada<\/strong> Operators should not enter the OLBB Beirut FIR at all levels due to risk of military activity. CZQX Notam H3476\/24. <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>New, July 29.<\/strong><\/span><\/li>\n<li><strong>US FAA <\/strong>Exercise caution within 200nm of the Damascus FIR due to military activity. Possibility of GPS interference, communication jamming, and long-range surface to air missiles in the area. KICZ Notam A0009\/18.<\/li>\n<li><strong>United Kingdom <\/strong>Caution to UK operators in the OLBB\/Beirut FIR due to potential risk from military activity. EGTT Notam V0025\/24.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h4>Why have these warnings not been upgraded?<\/h4>\n<p>History has taught us that we need to be more responsive to airspace threats \u2013 a danger may exist or develop before states publish official airspace warnings or restrictions. And all of that <strong>takes time.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The events of the past days have happened quickly, and extensive diplomatic efforts are now underway to prevent a larger-scale conflict in the Middle East, but it remains to be seen if one can be avoided. <strong>We&#8217;re monitoring the situation closely <\/strong>&#8211; keep an eye on <a href=\"https:\/\/safeairspace.net\/lebanon\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">safeairspace.net<\/a> for updates.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/safeairspace.net\/lebanon\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-25900 size-large\" src=\"https:\/\/ops.group\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/Screenshot-2024-07-30-at-09.43.03-1024x384.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"384\" srcset=\"https:\/\/ops.group\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/Screenshot-2024-07-30-at-09.43.03-1024x384.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/ops.group\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/Screenshot-2024-07-30-at-09.43.03-300x112.jpg 300w, https:\/\/ops.group\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/Screenshot-2024-07-30-at-09.43.03-768x288.jpg 768w, https:\/\/ops.group\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/Screenshot-2024-07-30-at-09.43.03-1536x576.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/ops.group\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/Screenshot-2024-07-30-at-09.43.03-2048x767.jpg 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Overflights risks of the OLBB\/Beirut FIR are increasing. The outbreak of a larger scale conflict&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":49,"featured_media":25890,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[451,2153],"class_list":{"0":"post-25869","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-briefings","8":"tag-israel","9":"tag-lebanon"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ops.group\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25869","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ops.group\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ops.group\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ops.group\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/49"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ops.group\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=25869"}],"version-history":[{"count":22,"href":"https:\/\/ops.group\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25869\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":25918,"href":"https:\/\/ops.group\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25869\/revisions\/25918"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ops.group\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/25890"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ops.group\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=25869"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ops.group\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=25869"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ops.group\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=25869"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}