{"id":20837,"date":"2022-12-23T05:37:30","date_gmt":"2022-12-23T10:37:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ops.group\/blog\/?p=20837"},"modified":"2022-12-23T05:37:49","modified_gmt":"2022-12-23T10:37:49","slug":"the-day-after-tomorrow-is-now","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ops.group\/blog\/the-day-after-tomorrow-is-now\/","title":{"rendered":"The Day After Tomorrow is Now&#8230;"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Pilots and operators are definitely not the ones hoping for a white Christmas because it means <strong>horrible weather, delays and disruption.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Unfortunately for all, weather news sites are calling <strong>a &#8216;storm of epic proportions&#8217; is heading towards North America.<\/strong> It might already have reached you even&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>So here is the update on the weather forecast, and a hopefully handy refresher on some of the challenges this might mean for aviation.<em> (So you know we care and are thinking about you while we sit cosy in our warm houses drinking Eggnog).<\/em><\/p>\n<h4>The Forecast.<\/h4>\n<p><strong>On a scale of 1 to bad<\/strong>, they are calling this a\u00a0<em>&#8216;once in a generation&#8217;\u00a0<\/em>weather event, a\u00a0<i>&#8216;looming winter storm of historic\u00a0proportions&#8217;. <\/i>Not quite\u00a0A Day After Tomorrow level weather phenomena, but not far off&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>The weather is being caused by a<strong> severe low pressure system<\/strong> known colloquially as a &#8216;bomb cyclone&#8217; because of the<strong> rapid and significant pressure drop<\/strong> that occurs &#8211; around 24 millibars in 24 hours (and that right there is one thing to be cautious about).<\/p>\n<p>The arctic storm is expected to fully impact the <strong>east coast of the US and Canada<\/strong> later on December 23, and the following warnings are in place:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Powerful winter storm bringing sharp cold front and severe snowfall from <strong>Midwest to Ohio Valley:<\/strong>\u00a0<em>Dec 23 onwards<\/em><\/li>\n<li>Powerful winter storm bringing sharp cold front and severe snowfall through <strong>Great Lakes and interior Northeast:<\/strong> W<em>eekend Dec 24-25 onwards<\/em><\/li>\n<li>Extreme cold and high gusts over <strong>central an eastern US:<\/strong>\u00a0<em>Dec 23 onwards<\/em><\/li>\n<li>Flooding in the<strong> Northeast:<\/strong>\u00a0<em>Weekend Dec 24 onwards<\/em><\/li>\n<li><strong>States of emergency<\/strong> declared across New York, Kentucky, North Carolina, West Virginia, Georgia and Oklahoma. An &#8216;energy emergency&#8217; in Wisconsin.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<div id=\"attachment_20839\" style=\"width: 1034px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-20839\" class=\"wp-image-20839 size-large\" src=\"https:\/\/ops.group\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/Screenshot-2022-12-23-at-11.21.36-1024x765.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"765\" srcset=\"https:\/\/ops.group\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/Screenshot-2022-12-23-at-11.21.36-1024x765.png 1024w, https:\/\/ops.group\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/Screenshot-2022-12-23-at-11.21.36-300x224.png 300w, https:\/\/ops.group\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/Screenshot-2022-12-23-at-11.21.36-768x574.png 768w, https:\/\/ops.group\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/Screenshot-2022-12-23-at-11.21.36-1536x1148.png 1536w, https:\/\/ops.group\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/Screenshot-2022-12-23-at-11.21.36.png 1562w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><p id=\"caption-attachment-20839\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">The approaching storm brings &#8216;plunging&#8217; temperatures and QNHs to watch out for<\/p><\/div>\n<h4>What is the impact for aviation?<\/h4>\n<p>Here is a general &#8216;things to look out for&#8217; list:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Airports are likely to see <strong>significant disruption, cancellations and closures<\/strong> leading to limited alternate options. En-route airspace will be more congested with diversions and detours taking place<\/li>\n<li>Significant <strong>ground delays for de-icing\/anti-icing<\/strong>, and during periods of extreme weather operations will be grounded leading to significant backlogs, parking issues and congestion<\/li>\n<li><strong>Power outages<\/strong> are likely in the Midwest and Canada which may have a knock on effect for airports<\/li>\n<li><strong>Staff shortages<\/strong> may occur if folk are unable to commute to airports<\/li>\n<li><strong>Oil prices<\/strong> are leaping up. Check the costs for fuel.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>You can find the <strong>National Weather Service<\/strong> page on the<a href=\"https:\/\/www.weather.gov\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"> storm warnings here.<\/a>\u00a0They post regular updates<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/NWS?s=20&amp;t=unuNdvVDycqOdgxYQc2HZQ\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"> via their Twitter page<\/a> as well.<\/p>\n<p>You can monitor the current US <strong>National Airspace System Status<\/strong> <a href=\"https:\/\/nasstatus.faa.gov\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">here.<\/a><\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_20838\" style=\"width: 1034px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-20838\" class=\"wp-image-20838\" src=\"https:\/\/ops.group\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/Screenshot-2022-12-23-at-10.23.32.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"653\" srcset=\"https:\/\/ops.group\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/Screenshot-2022-12-23-at-10.23.32.png 800w, https:\/\/ops.group\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/Screenshot-2022-12-23-at-10.23.32-300x191.png 300w, https:\/\/ops.group\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/Screenshot-2022-12-23-at-10.23.32-768x490.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><p id=\"caption-attachment-20838\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Purple is bad<\/p><\/div>\n<h4>Is there anything you can prepare for?<\/h4>\n<p>The weather conditions are severe, they are saying things like &#8220;<em>life-threatening wind chills&#8221; <\/em>so think about that before sending your poor First Officer out, unless you want a fingerless icicle trying to fly with you. It really is going to get nasty in places.<\/p>\n<p>Here is our list of <em><strong>Winter Chillers &amp; Thrillers\u00a0<\/strong><\/em>to look out for:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Conditions might really get too severe<\/strong> so\u00a0<em>don&#8217;t push it\u00a0<\/em>if they do. Look after yourselves!<\/li>\n<li>There are going to be <strong>significant delays in the air and on the ground<\/strong>. Take fuel and make a plan B (preferably before you need it).<\/li>\n<li><strong>HOTs are going to be hard to manage:<\/strong> Anyone who has ever operated out of JKF on a winter&#8217;s day and has waited 7+ hours for de-icing knows what I am talking about. With queues of traffic and bad weather there is a good chance you&#8217;ll go out of your HOT so keep an eye on the clock.<\/li>\n<li><strong>The<\/strong> <strong>Global Reporting Format\u00a0<\/strong>is great but if it is saying things like 1\/1\/1 then you might find you can&#8217;t stop so well, so check that performance. Some operators don&#8217;t allow takeoff on icy runways unless treated, for example.<\/li>\n<li>Ice pellets, hail etc, and severe icing ain&#8217;t great. Check them SigWx charts too.<\/li>\n<li>Refresh on<strong> Cold Weather operations procedures<\/strong>.We found some that might or might not be helpful:\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.ifalpa.org\/publications\/library\/winter-conditions-at-finland-airports--3217\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">IFALPA put this guidance<\/a>\u00a0out on Finland airport operations (but it is applicable to anywhere cold)<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.faasafety.gov\/files\/notices\/2007\/Oct\/PP_07011002_Winter_Operations.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">The FAA published this<\/a> (which is geared to GA but still has some handy info in it)<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.aopa.org\/training-and-safety\/active-pilots\/safety-and-technique\/weather\/cold-weather-operations\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">AOPA published this<\/a> and it looks pretty helpful<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li><strong>Look after your batteries<\/strong> &#8211; they have minimum temperature limits and you might need to take them off if you&#8217;re parking up outside.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Watch the fuel temperatures<\/strong> &#8211; JET A1 freezes at -47\u00b0C, Jet A at -40\u00b0C.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Check your altitudes<\/strong> &#8211; apply those cold temperature corrections<\/li>\n<li>Snow and blizzards bring<strong> LVPs<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>We have a few posts which you might find handy for swotting up on all things chilling:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/ops.group\/blog\/fuel-facts\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Fuel Facts: Let&#8217;s get to the (freezing) point<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/ops.group\/blog\/de-ice-de-ice-baby-cold-weather-opsicles\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">De-ice De-ice Baby<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h4>Be careful!<\/h4>\n<p>Not much more to say than that. Stay warm and safe.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Pilots and operators are definitely not the ones hoping for a white Christmas because it&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":51,"featured_media":20850,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[1659,709],"class_list":{"0":"post-20837","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-briefings","8":"tag-cold-weather","9":"tag-winter-ops"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ops.group\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20837","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ops.group\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ops.group\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ops.group\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/51"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ops.group\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=20837"}],"version-history":[{"count":8,"href":"https:\/\/ops.group\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20837\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":20851,"href":"https:\/\/ops.group\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20837\/revisions\/20851"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ops.group\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/20850"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ops.group\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=20837"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ops.group\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=20837"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ops.group\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=20837"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}