{"id":13766,"date":"2021-06-22T09:06:46","date_gmt":"2021-06-22T13:06:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ops.group\/blog\/?p=13766"},"modified":"2021-06-23T09:20:08","modified_gmt":"2021-06-23T13:20:08","slug":"any-single-pilots-out-there","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ops.group\/blog\/any-single-pilots-out-there\/","title":{"rendered":"Any Single Pilots Out There?"},"content":{"rendered":"

The big talking point of the moment – Airbus and Cathay Pacific’s project<\/a> to have only one pilot in the cockpit during cruise.<\/strong><\/p>\n

So let\u2019s take a look at what this might mean for safety<\/strong>, operations<\/strong> and pilots<\/strong> worldwide.<\/p>\n

The headlines are misleading<\/h4>\n

Cathay and Airbus have not<\/strong> designed a new A350 which no longer needs pilots operating it. There is no<\/strong> mega computer AI robot involved which is stealing our job.<\/p>\n

The plan is to simply allow one pilot to go and rest during “quiet cruise” phases<\/strong>, while another pilot remains in the cockpit vigilantly monitoring (and probably with toothpicks propping their eyes open).\u00a0<\/span>This will allow them to potentially reduce the number of crew required on long haul flights, and while it means a change to procedures it is not really, as many are reporting, a leap towards pilotless flight decks.<\/p>\n

Maybe just a small step<\/h4>\n

So, what are the considerations here that people are talking about?<\/p>\n

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Cathay Pacific are in talks with Airbus on this project<\/p><\/div>\n

GermanWings<\/h4>\n

The GermanWings accident resulted in a rule that there must be two persons in the cockpit at anytime. So if a pilot needed a bathroom break, a cabin crew member was required to come in. This was fairly contentious at the time because, as many pointed out, what is a cabin crew member going to do<\/strong> if a “situation” arises?<\/p>\n

This rule was eventually revoked<\/strong>, in part because EASA and other authorities brought in new regulations<\/a> relating to pilot psychometric testing. However, with only one pilot in the flight deck, this does raise various safety concerns – from events similar to the GermanWings accident, to the question of pilot incapacitation or even, what do they do if they need the loo?<\/p>\n

What about the AF447 accident?<\/h4>\n

AF447 was, in part, attributed to the experience levels of the two crew in the flight deck<\/strong> – both First Officers while the Captain was out sleeping.<\/p>\n

Using cruise relief pilots is not a new thing\u00a0<\/strong>though, and in order to operate with a single pilot, that pilot will presumably need to meet a minimum experience level. Additionally, the\u00a0Captain will maintain the decision as to when they leave the flight deck in their First Officer\u2019s hands.<\/p>\n

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Big storms on the horizon?\u00a0Maybe stay in for a bit longer.<\/p><\/div>\n

The lonesome pilot can also recall their colleague to the flight deck should a situation require it. So the question really comes down to whether a situation is likely to arise where, by having only a single pilot the result is more critical or catastrophic<\/strong> than if two had been present and therein lies the problem – because years of aviation safety studies have shown time again that there is a reason we operate with two crew.<\/p>\n

Safety in numbers<\/h4>\n

Modern aircraft, and the A350 in particular, have many levels of safety and redundancy<\/strong> to support the crew. They can automatically fly TCAS maneuvers. They can carry out an emergency descent at the push of a button.\u00a0In addition, Airbus are working to demonstrate that their aircraft and systems are robust enough to basically not really fail. They are also designing them to be able to autonomously handle any situation without pilot input for 15 minutes.<\/strong><\/p>\n

This will be a big deal. <\/strong>It will mean, should something fail,\u00a0and\u00a0<\/em>the single pilot be incapacitated, that there is time for the second pilot to wake up and make it to the flight deck to solve the situation. However, recent aviation accidents involving malfunctioning systems<\/strong> (designed to minimize pilot workload), and ongoing concerns about automation complacency<\/a>\u00a0highlight the potential downside of such advancements.<\/p>\n

Can ETOPS can teach us something?<\/h4>\n

The A350 was certified for 370 minutes ETOPS.<\/a> That\u2019s a long time. It is over 6 hours. 6 hours on one engine potentially. So what leads to this?<\/p>\n

ETOPS is given to the operator, not the aircraft, and it is based on the operator\u2019s ability to demonstrate necessary airworthiness, maintenance and ops requirements. It is really a statistical thing.<\/b> If an operator hasn\u2019t had an engine issue in a really long time then they are probably going to be able to get a better ETOPS approval.<\/p>\n

So what does this have to do with only one pilot in the flight deck?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Well, it boils down to the same thing – statistics and procedures:<\/p>\n