{"id":12346,"date":"2021-03-16T06:02:47","date_gmt":"2021-03-16T10:02:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ops.group\/blog\/?p=12346"},"modified":"2021-03-16T07:58:27","modified_gmt":"2021-03-16T11:58:27","slug":"notam-2021-update-progress-at-last","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ops.group\/blog\/notam-2021-update-progress-at-last\/","title":{"rendered":"NOTAM 2021 update: progress, at last"},"content":{"rendered":"

Here\u2019s something you might not have been expecting: at long last,\u00a0true progress on fixing NOTAMs<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

If you\u2019ve been following the story over the last few years, you\u2019ll know that there has been an ever brightening spotlight on the problem. Here at OPSGROUP, we\u2019ve certainly been vocal about the issue. The response to our\u00a0first blog post<\/a>\u00a0back in 2017 was huge, and so we made it our mission:\u00a0Let\u2019s Fix NOTAMs<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

We started out with a campaign to bring attention to the problem: We wrote the\u00a0Field Guide to Notams<\/a>, ran a\u00a0Worst NOTAM<\/a>\u00a0competition at EBACE, held a Notam Summit in New York, conducted a pilot and dispatcher\u00a0survey<\/a>\u00a0with 2100 responses, asked OPSGROUP members for support and input, ran a\u00a0design contest<\/a>, and through all of this gathered ideas on how to fix things. That led to an updated article in 2019 titled \u201cWhy Pilots are reading a Reel of Telegrams in the Cockpit<\/a>\u201d \u2013 which gathered more energy and interest around the problem. We then formed a Notam Team, started the \u201cFixing Notams<\/a>\u201d website, worked with other industry groups looking at the issue like the AIS Reform Coalition<\/a>, and saw the FAA host the first industry gathering on NOTAMs in November 2019. We started a petition to keep momentum going, with\u00a08800 people<\/a>\u00a0signing our plea to fix Notams.<\/p>\n

In terms of specific solutions, we tried a bunch of things. We built an AI bot with ICAO, called\u00a0NORM<\/a>\u00a0\u2013 to see if we could use machine learning to sort out the mess. In the Notam Team, we looked at the problem from the ground up, and looked at building an entirely new system, called N2. We also collaborated further with ICAO to build the\u00a0Notameter<\/a>, a tool to analyse the quality of existing Notams. Internally at OPSGROUP, our small team spent many hours researching, pondering, idea generating and data analysing.<\/p>\n

The result? Much learning, much discussion, much collaboration \u2013 but no concrete results or fixes. This the way of things. NOTAMs are harder than they look. The AI was not able to make sense of Notams in the way we\u2019d hoped, the initial Notameter was interesting but wasn\u2019t changing anything. A brand new system wasn\u2019t going to work: despite the failings, the existing system has buy-in and trust, and attempting to circumvent that with an entirely new mechanism sounds inspiring, but isn\u2019t practical.<\/p>\n

But progress doesn\u2019t always come along the path that you expect. And in the quiet, dark days of a Covid-dominated December, a small group of die-hard Notam Fixers formed to continue the battle. Taking all the learnings of the Notam journey over the last few years, we sat down together once a fortnight over the last few months, and forged a new path. Each of us represented our own group of allies in the mission: ICAO, IFAIMA, IFALPA, and OPSGROUP. This togetherness created a renewed energy to solve the problem.<\/p>\n

And now, we have traction.<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Next month, ICAO will spearhead the launch of a\u00a0Global Campaign on NOTAM Improvement<\/strong>. Our aim is to solve the Notam Problem in manageable chunks, gathering energy as we solve them and make progress. Rather than re-invent the wheel, we will fix the system from within, starting with the easier aspects and progressing from there. The first phase of this campaign focuses on\u00a0Old Notams<\/strong>. At any one time, there are about 35,000 active Notams globally, and 20% of these \u2013 one in five \u2013 are old; in other words, not respecting the existing rules of Notams being issued in principle once only for a maximum of three months (everything else should go into the AIP, an AIC, or some other publication).\u00a0 We are drawing on the collective cooperation of the AIS community \u2013 the Notam Officers \u2013 to uphold the rules and get rid of Notams that don\u2019t follow them. The result will be a potential decrease of 7,000 Notams per month, and a 20% reduction in the size of the average briefing packet.<\/p>\n

The ICAO Global Campaign on Notam Improvement will\u00a0kick off<\/a>\u00a0with a worldwide webinar on April 8th, for which ICAO has issued an invitation to member states by State Letter. After this, a series of bi-monthly progress webinars will start on June 16th.<\/p>\n

The backing of ICAO means we are now tackling the Notam Problem head on, with the fullest force.<\/p>\n

The focus on “Old Notams” is just the first phase of this campaign. As well as tackling this particular aspect of the Notam Problem, we will be creating awareness of the wider issue, especially in the AIS community, and forming support mechanisms for AIS offices around the world to deal with not just Old Notams, but also further improvements down the track. In Phase Two<\/strong>, we plan to look more closely at how we can improve the mechanics of the system itself.<\/p>\n

NOW, versus Later<\/h3>\n

An important distinction to make here is that this work is on “NOTAMs, Now<\/strong>“. There is separate, ongoing work in the field of the “Future of NOTAMs”. You may have seen acronyms like SWIM and AIXM, and terms like Digital Notams or Graphical Notams. The FAA, ICAO, Eurocontrol, and other agencies are building a model for the future, when NOTAM’s will change from the current AFTN format and transmission into an internet, or IP based, transmission and following a service-oriented approach. This work is valuable, but with a target implementation date of 2028, has a different focus. Even if it goes smoothly, it would not instigate change until 2028. Needless to say, if we don\u2019t fix the underlying issues now, it may not even solve them then, either.<\/p>\n

Thing-Labelling<\/h3>\n

For the enthusiasts, I\u2019ll delve some more into the Notam Problem, what we\u2019ve learned, and what the next phase of fixing might look like.<\/p>\n

In\u00a0Phase One<\/strong>, the brief is simple and clear: remove Old Notams, and reduce the count. That count \u2013 or total volume of Notams \u2013 reached about 1.9 million in 2020. Reducing that count by 20% means a reduction in the volume of Notams that pilots are presented with pre-flight. It\u2019s a simple, quick win.<\/p>\n

In Phase Two<\/strong>, we will be able to look at the first systemic change – not just reducing the count as in phase one, but finding ways to improve the quality and usability of the system as a whole.<\/p>\n

One potential option is how we can label Notams. You might recall we built an Artificial Intelligence bot with ICAO, called NORM. The terms Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning are in essence still interchangeable, and the latter makes things easier for most of us to comprehend. Machine learning is really just \u201cThing Labelling\u201d (see this article<\/a>\u00a0from Cassie at Google). Very simply: tell me what this thing is about, and I can do something with it. NORM wasn\u2019t able to \u201cthing label\u201d quite as well as we\u2019d hoped, but the concept remains valid for Notams \u2013 if you can tell me what this Notam is about, I can do things with it.<\/p>\n

We have a manual thing-labeller for NOTAMs built in: the Q-code. This five letter code, like\u00a0QFAHX<\/strong>, which means \u201cThis NOTAM is about\u00a0Birds<\/strong>\u201c. The trouble is, that there are far too many choices. There are 179 Subjects (60 AGA, 47 ATM, 40 CNS, 27 Nav Warnings, 5 Other) and 77 Conditions (16 Availability, 16 Changes, 26 Hazards, 19 Limitations). The number of permutations, or possible 5 letter Q-codes, is therefore 13,783.<\/p>\n

The result? As you might imagine, the person putting a NOTAM into the system has to choose a Q-code, and with that many choices, the same subject can have a host of different Q-codes. In a review of all Notams issued in 2020, we found 1,063 different Q-codes in common use. In addition, we found that 47% of Aerodrome Notams, and 25% of FIR Notams, used the Q-code \u201cXX\u201d or \u201cXXXX\u201d, which translates as \u201cI don\u2019t quite know which one to use\u201d.<\/p>\n

Net result: The Q-code isn\u2019t a reliable thing-labeller as it stands. However, if we refine the number of available Q-codes to a set amount, like 50, or 100, we then have a robust and reliable way of labelling the Notam. And if we have a reliable label, then we can do two magical things: SORT and FILTER them. Sorting means that we can present critical items first (like a runway closure), and Filtering means we can exclude things we don\u2019t care about (Birds, perhaps).<\/p>\n

A key item on the Pilot wishlist is \u201cShow me the critical stuff first<\/strong>\u201d. If the NOTAM can be labelled to show \u201cWhat is this NOTAM about\u201d, it would allow end users (directly, or through the NOTAM distributors like Lido, Jeppesen, ARINC, etc.) to reliably filter and sort them. In other words, Closed Runways appear first and Birds and Grass Cutting appear last, if at all. The magic of refining the Q-code field to achieve this is that we don\u2019t need to build anything new, make any structural changes to a Notam message (exceptionally challenging), nor create a burden on states to invest in new technology. It\u2019s a simple, very effective, tweak.<\/p>\n

There are other recognised issues: for example, the Upper Case format, Plain English vs Abbreviations, and in time, I believe we can solve those too.<\/p>\n

Getting closer to the solution<\/h3>\n

For those of you that have been with us for a longer period,\u00a0 you might remember the little chart I drew a year or two back. Fixing Notams was never going to be easy.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

I think we\u2019re somewhere around the red circle area. We have done so much, and we now have global attention, a harmonious, energised group of organizations working on the problem, and as of April 2021, the backing and full force of ICAO in this\u00a0Global Campaign for Notam Improvement<\/a>.<\/p>\n

I\u2019m excited to see what we can achieve from here.<\/p>\n

Further reading and links<\/h4>\n