{"id":11698,"date":"2021-02-08T11:43:06","date_gmt":"2021-02-08T16:43:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ops.group\/blog\/?p=11698"},"modified":"2021-02-08T11:43:06","modified_gmt":"2021-02-08T16:43:06","slug":"rumbles-over-riyadh-a-new-threat","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ops.group\/blog\/rumbles-over-riyadh-a-new-threat\/","title":{"rendered":"Rumbles Over Riyadh: A New Threat?"},"content":{"rendered":"

You might have seen the headlines a week or so ago. On January 23, Saudi Arabia’s capital Riyadh was attacked<\/a> by a \u2018hostile air target\u2019 \u2013 likely an explosive \u2018kamikaze\u2019 drone<\/strong>. Saudi air defences destroyed it, causing a loud explosion over the city and flight disruptions at OERK\/Riyadh.<\/p>\n

Then a few days later it happened again<\/a>. Another big bang in the skies of Riyadh and more flight disruptions.\u00a0Plenty of people caught it on camera. But the silence from official channels was deafening<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

So what? Isn’t there is always stuff in the news about drones over there?<\/h4>\n

Yes. They\u2019re sporadically sent over the border<\/a> from Yemen by the Houthi \u2013 the folk who overthrew the Yemeni government back in 2014. Southern regions are usually the worst hit and occasionally Jeddah<\/strong> and Riyadh<\/strong> are targeted just to remind Saudi Arabia that they can.<\/p>\n

But here\u2019s the kicker: this time it probably wasn\u2019t them.<\/strong><\/p>\n

How Do You Know?<\/h4>\n

Firstly, the Houthi have adamantly denied<\/a> they were to blame. They\u2019ve actually gone out of their way to distance themselves from the attack. So why should we believe them? Because of the status quo \u2013 they want to make headlines<\/strong>. Their attacks on Saudi Arabia are a demonstration of their firepower and willingness to target anywhere in the country. They\u2019re even known to claim responsibility<\/a> for attacks that weren\u2019t theirs.<\/p>\n

Secondly, someone else has already put their hand up<\/a> for the attack – a group of militants in Iraq<\/strong> called the Alwiya Waad al Haq. The Who? The \u2018Brigades of the Righteous Promise\u2019. It\u2019s a fancy name but the takeaway is this: someone new is apparently taking shots at Saudi Arabia from Iraq.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Here’s why<\/h4>\n

Saudi Arabia and Iran don\u2019t get along.<\/strong> The reasons are long and complicated and you can read more about them here<\/a>. But in a nutshell, religious differences and a desire for regional dominance are the cause of the ongoing conflict. The attacks on Riyadh are a worry because they may reflect a changing way that Iran asserts its dominance throughout the Persian Gulf \u2013 by proxy<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

Proxy conflicts are a thing. It means when someone is doing the hands-on fighting for somebody else. Remember those Brigades of the Righteous Promise people? It is alleged that Iran<\/strong> may have put have put them up to it<\/strong>, and supplied the firepower to do it.<\/p>\n

There\u2019s no shortage of independent militia in Iraq. They\u2019re difficult to trace and new ones emerge seemingly from nowhere \u2013 so much so that they\u2019re sometimes known as \u2018shadow militia<\/strong>.\u2019 In\u00a0reality, they are usually a cover for larger and much more well-known groups. In this case, possibly the Hezbollah<\/a> \u2013 one of Iran\u2019s largest proxies. \u00a0By hiding behind different names they can cause confusion, unpredictability and can divert blame away from the prime suspects.<\/p>\n

It is possible that Iran may now start using these proxies more often for attacks on its regional adversaries<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

So why is this an aviation issue?<\/h4>\n

We get twitchy when anyone is firing things into the sky.\u00a0This way of fighting is unpredictable and the weapons being used are getting more sophisticated and can cover large distances.<\/p>\n

Case in point. Back to the Brigade guys \u2013 since their alleged attack on Riyadh they have since threatened to attack the Burj Khalifa<\/a> in Dubai<\/strong>, and also Abu Dhabi airport<\/strong>.\u00a0Whether or not their threats can be taken seriously remains to be seen \u2013 but if the attack on Riyadh is anything to go by, they might have the weapons and intent to do it.<\/p>\n

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A drone similar to the ones believed to have targeted Riyadh.<\/p><\/div>\n

For aircraft, there are a few threats to be aware of:<\/strong><\/p>\n