Summer in the Northern Hemisphere means a few additional challenges for aviation, particularly in the USA – Hurricanes (which we wrote about here) and Wildfires.

You probably read ‘Hurricanes’ and think yeah, I get that, but fires?

Wildfires do pose a fairly major risk to aviation though, so we thought we’d take a quick look at what those risks might be and what the forecast is for the 2021 Wildfire season.

Too hot to handle.

Wildfires are prevalent across the US during the hotter summer months, typically running from May through October.

Looking back to previous years, California saw 13 fires in 2019, but over 30 major ones in both 2018 and 2017. The 2018 fires led to over 1.8 million acres of land being burned. 2020 saw the first ‘rain free’ February (in San Francisco) since 1864 and the drier months, and warmer spring resulted in some of the worst wildfires in California’s history. 

The outlook for 2021 is not much better. 

There have been extended dry periods with over 90% of the West now in drought conditions. There have also been record high temperatures in the Pacific Northwest, Northern Rockies and northern Great Basin with warmer than normal conditions forecast for the summer. Add to that an increase in lightening activity and you are left with a recipe for significant wildfire risk.

In fact, the figures so far for 2021 are already at a ten year high.

Where can you monitor the fires?

There are multiple sites which track and monitor wildfires. This is a particularly good one and will link to specific info on the major fires.

But the risk to aviation is often not from the fires themselves. The big hazards comes from:

• Smoke
• Increased traffic levels, diversions and ATC capacity
• Changes to localized weather conditions.

Out of the frying pan and into the fire.

Major airports generally have good protection from wildfires, and are a distance away from areas which will readily burn. However, smaller and more remote airports may not and damage to infrastructure, or disruptions to ground transport has a knock on effect. Fires also lead to power outages which impact services at the airports.

The major hazard comes from smoke though, and this can cause significant disruptions through reduced visibility.

Smoke has been known to reduce visibility to around 200m. In 2005 all four major airports in Honduras closed because of limited visibility from wildfires. In 2010, the visibility at KBOI/Boise Municipal Airport reduced from 10 miles down to 1 3/4 miles in just 9 minutes after a shift in wind direction carried smoke from nearby wildfires into the airport vicinity.

KSFO/San Francisco has also experienced delays and cancellations due to smoke from nearby Butte Country wildfires.

While Sonoma Country airports faced multiple closures in 2019.

Then there is the reduced Air Quality.

The health hazard this poses to ground workers means airports may find themselves understaffed and reduced resources lead to reduced services, which lead to more disruptions for aircraft and operations.

The smoke hazard isn’t just at ground level.

In 2013, a NASA satellite captured images of smoke from Canadian and Colorado wildfires which extended over the North Atlantic, and in 2020 an aircraft diverted into CYYT/St John’s after smelling fumes in the flight deck which were attributed to wildfires (again in Colorado).

What’s cooking.

Disruptions at airports lead to increased traffic levels requiring ATC support for diversions.

Smaller, regional airports have less capability for dealing with the impact of nearby wildfires, and when small regional airports in areas like Oakland, San Jose, Silicon Valley which have a high density of private jet traffic close, this can mean a lot of diversions happening very suddenly, and where they go can becomes an issue.

In addition to diverting aircraft, there is the firefighting aircraft to factor in as well. They might operate low-level, but they are not small and they need to operate from somewhere and this is added pressure for ATC.

MD-10s and BAE 146s are commonly used. The world’s largest is a B747 Supertanker which can carry up to 19,600 US gallons of fire retardant or water.

TFR zones are set up for major fire zone areas to allow for safe movement of the firefighting aircraft. You can check these here.

Where there are fires, the risks of incidents increases and between 2000 and 2013 there were 298 wildfire firefighter fatalities in the US. 26% of these were caused by ‘aviation associated’ activities which occurred across 41 separate events involving 42 firefighting aircraft. Three of these were midair collisions.

Pyromania.

Wildfires can impact the weather environment as well.

When large enough, Pyrocumulus cloud (also called Flammegenitus clouds) filled with rising ash and aerosols can build. These aerosols often carry a charge that increases the likelihood of lightning and with that an increased chance of fires spreading rapidly.

The “Station Fire’ of 2009, which burned more than 160,000 acres just outside of Los Angeles, also produced a convective column estimated to reach around 23,000 ft. Other majors fires have produced ones reaching as high as 40,000 ft.

These huge clouds are similar to cumulonimbus, only without rain. But they still contain significant up and downdrafts and can result in localized wind shear from gust fronts. The change in ground temperatures can result in significant thermals and large temperature gradients can result in significant localized vertical and horizontal winds.

There are ways to help.

Check those TFRs and check the wildfire maps. If you are operating into an area showing significant activity, consider how much busier ATC might be, and remember to check the capacity at your airport destination.

Report fires when you see them. Early notification of developing fires means the authorities can deal with them quicker, before they grow out of control.

Consider other ways to help. If you have an aircraft available, consider using it to help with evacuation flights. Airlines pulled together in 2016 following some major fires in Canada, and helped evacuate more than 80,000 residents. They also helped them bring their pets out safely. Be warned – you will have a tear in your eye after reading this one so open at your own risk!

The Forecast

There is a full seasonal outlook published here. But for a quicker summary of the 2021 Wildfire Forecast:

• Alaska has ‘normal’ fire potential through summer and into the fall.
• The Northwest is expected to experience significant and above average fire potential into September.
• Northern California and Hawaii also have above normal significant fire potential expected.
• Southern California will be at high risk through September (although this is ‘normal’ for the region).
• The Northern Rockies region is expected to be above normal through August and September.
• The Great Basin is expected to see increasing fire potential through August and possibly into September
• The Southwest is expected to remain normal.
• The Eastern Area is expected to be normal.
• The Southern Area is expected to be below normal.

Wildfires pose a significant risk to aviation operations. They also pose a huge risk to those living there, the infrastructure and the economy. The Fire Fighter pilots are an extraordinary bunch of aviators and we wish them the best for this year.

There is a very interesting podcast available here if anyone wants to hear more about what their ‘Day at Work’ involves.

Back in April, the Pentagon confirmed that some leaked photos and videos of UFOs were, indeed, legitimate. Of course, ‘UFO’ just means “unidentified flying object” – it doesn’t necessarily mean extra-terrestrial. In fact, these days the US government generally use the term ‘UAP’ (unidentified aerial phenomena) which makes us think of old, retired aliens…

Reports of UFO’s/UAP’s, or whatever you prefer to call them are relatively common though, and over the years there have been numerous sightings directly from airline pilots.

So, do we need to be wary of alien spaceships in our airspace? What sort of risks do the other possible explanations actually mean for aircraft safety?

What is out there?

First up, let’s take a look at what sightings have been reported in the past, including the recently acknowledged ones.

The Metallic Blimp

The videos the Pentagon recently acknowledged were actually taken back in 2004 and 2015, and they show objects moving at mega speed. In one, a pilot is heard exclaiming “Look at that thing, dude! It’s rotating!”

But is that a UFO, or is there a more reasonable explanation?

The most obvious answer would be that it is a military aircraft of some sort, but given the videos were made by military pilots who were not aware of other military traffic operating in the area, and considering the Pentagon confirmed the videos’ authenticity, but not what they were showing, the mystery continues…

The New Mexico Sighting

In February 2021, a radio transmission from an America Airlines crew was picked up by a random blogger who happened to be listening in on a radio scanner. He apparently just ‘stumbled across’ the transmission.

The aircraft was routing over New Mexico at 37,000ft when they reported seeing an object zooming over them. On querying it with ATC, they were informed that the controllers could see no object on their radarscopes.

The Bright White Light Flight

In 2018, a British Airways crew called in after seeing a ‘very bright light that disappeared at very high speed’. The sighting was backed up by a Virgin Airlines pilot who said they also witnessed multiple ‘exceedingly bright’ objects.

New Age Reporting

The US Government is certainly taking sightings more seriously, and in 2019 announced they would bring in a new ‘data driven’ approach to reporting and recording them.

You can visit the official US NUFORC site here. NUFORC stands for the National UFO Reporting Center, and they have a database of all reports. In fact, the number of reports is quite impressive, as are some of the things written in them.

Here are the Other Theories (and the real risks)

The other possible explanations for many of these sightings actually have some important risk considerations to think about if you come across them in your airplane.

First up, meteor showers and falling space debris. These are pretty common and appear bright and fast-moving for more than a few seconds, particularly if they are entering the atmosphere at a certain angle and are big enough to withstand being immediately incinerated.

The American Meteor Society has a ‘Fire Ball Log’ which you can check to confirm whether your ‘UFO sighting’ was spotted by someone else and logged as meteor.

You can also keep an eye on the calendar for the reoccurring meteor showers which light up the skies each year.

The real risk here is fairly minimal. Aside from being a distraction, these are not going to hit an aircraft. Space debris is potentially another matter, and something we talked about here if you want to read up on it. The recent “return” of a Chinese Satellite gave some cause for concern just because of its size, and unguessable re-entry point.

The second theory (well, theories) are more earth-based. Atmospheric balloons and Chinese lanterns have been mistaken for UFO’s in the past – and these are often released without regard for how close they might get to aircraft. In 2018, an airplane narrowly missed a lantern while cruising at 20,000ft and despite being relatively thin these can still cause damage if ingested into engines.

In 1970, Aeroflot 1661 crashed shortly after take-off after colliding with a weather balloon. However, Radiosonde balloons are generally Notamed given their size and proximity to airports when released, so you should be aware of these in advance.

Rocket Launches. And other launches for that matter. An experimental rocket test in Norway caused concern after atmospheric conditions produced a bizarre illusion in the skies. It was in fact a missile test from Russia which went wrong, resulting in a spectacular (and presumably quite expensive) cloud.

Rocket launches mean prohibited airspace, so when they are going up they shouldn’t be an issue to aircraft. The FAA are reporting rocket launch site on charts nowadays, and you can find launch dates published on their Temporary Flight Restrictions page.

Clouds. Yep, weird clouds have confused people into thinking a spaceship is loitering nearby. Lenticular clouds often form over mountains when moist air is pushed up over them. The time to watch out is when you see lines of these sitting beyond the mountain crests because they can mean some pretty serious mountain waves are out there – and this means turbulence.

Other planets, even the Moon, have been mistaken for other flying objects by pilots.

A crew once took evasive action because they mistook Venus for another aircraft. In all fairness, they didn’t think it was a UFO so much as a C130 known to be in their near vicinity. This incident boiled down to a loss of SA, and a lot of fatigue.

Then there are drones, UAVs, UASs. The FAA have a website dedicated to reports on sightings of these, and it is important to report them because they are a genuine threat to aircraft when they encroach on airspace they should not encroach upon.

So, do we need to keep an eye on the sky?

Regardless of whether you think something is terrestrial or extra, if there is an unidentified object in your airspace – report it. It might be a real and immediate hazard to other aircraft, and recognizing what you see out there for what it really is will also help avoid the real threats.

A preliminary US intelligence analysis of unidentified aerial phenomena has concluded that such incidents are at least a threat to flight safety and potentially present a broader hazard. Particularly because they are often physical, and are one more thing inside already cluttered airspace.

Of course, UFOs might really be aliens coming to say hello. Some of the mysteries are still, after all, unsolved…